Best Film
The King's Speech. Seems obvious, and it's what everyone is saying, but I think everyone is probably right. Small possibility The Social Network will surprise us, maybe even Black Swan, but I'm going to go with King's Speech all the same.
"Hello everyone. Cock-donkey!"
Actor in a Leading Role
Looks like it's Colin Firth's year, doesn't it? And he's doing all the right things - historical character, repressed, struggling with a disability etc. And he lost last year, so it feels like his turn (and the industry really does seem to take into account whose 'turn' it is). People are saying good things about James Franco, and I still haven't seen 127 Hours so I can't comment, but I don't think that feels right. And while Jeff Bridges is great in True Grit, I think the fact that he won last year - and beat Colin Firth last year - militates against him. Colin Firth.
"Hello everyone. Jizz muppets!"
Actor in a supporting role
If Firth wins best actor, this should really go to Geoffrey Rush. His presence in The King's Speech is what allows Firth's performance to work, and he is really good. I could imagine a spin off series with the two of them fighting crime together in a time travelling Rolls Royce. That'd be good.
More likely, though, is Christian Bale for his equally brilliant turn in The Fighter, so I'm going to go with that. His gangly, wired performance is funny, tragic and wonderfully without vanity. Let's have him, please.
Actress in a leading role
Of the roles on offer here, I've only seen Natalie Portman in Black Swan, so I kind of have to go for that. She's very good, though, and I think she deserves it. She's had a patchy career since her amazing turn in Leon - yes, Attack of the Clones, I'm thinking of you - but in this she's on fire.
Actress in a supporting role
I'd like it to be Amy Adams please, because I love her. And she's very different in the stuff I've seen her in, so I think she's got the range. I'm not sure if she'll get it though. They might give it to Helen Bonham Carter in a fit of King's Speech Award Tourettes, but I hope they don't. Bonham Carter is a perfectly fine actress and I'm glad she's not doing another Depp-esqe Burton-dance, but this isn't her finest hour.
I'd like it to be Hailee Steinfeld, for True Grit. She certainly deserves it, and there's been much grumbling about her seemingly arbitrary demotion to supporting actress. She's in every scene of the film, and she motivates the primary action of the entire narrative, so why isn't she a lead?
Ooh - I don't know. There could also be a chance of Melissa Leo, the terrifying matriarch in The Fighter. Sod it - I'm going with Amy Adams. Maybe my support for her will count for something if she ever comes to Wakefield and tries to fall in love with me.
Animated Feature
Toy Story 3. Should be best film overall, really.
Art Direction
I'm not really sure what this means. I suppose the otherwise rubbish Alice in Wonderland looks nice. Let's say that.
Cinematography
True Grit. I think I'm right in saying that Roger Deakins has never won, and he certainly deserves to, so: him.
Costume Design
I'm never sure why period pieces always seem to do so well here. I mean, the costumes in The King's Speech are nice, but they didn't design them. They looked at old pictures and went 'I'll do that'. Again, I think Alice in Wonderland deserves this, though I say this without having seen The Tempest.
Directing
Unsure. Since Inception isn't even nominated, there is no point going by merit, as the category is clearly being run by cretins. I think it'll be Fincher for The Social Network, though I'm not entirely sure why. Maybe Tom Hooper, if Speech clears the board, and just possibly Aronsofsky. But I think Fincher.
Music (original score)
Inception. Surely! Best soundtrack for years! The Social Network is a close second, as would be Tron Legacy if the idiots had nominated it. But then, King's Speech won at the BAFTAs, for no apparent reason beyond an archaic desire to like posh things. Well piss off, King's Speech. You've won everything else. Let Inception win this. Inception! Inception!
Visual Effects
Again, I'd like it to be Inception, please. Great effects, many achieved without a lazy reliance on computers, all of which are crucial to theme and narrative. The bit where Ariadne reshapes the city around her is casually brilliant, and tells us volumes about the world of the film. And the zero gravity corridor fight is so great you come out thinking it took up most of the final act, rather than the 90 seconds it actually occupies. Inception!
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
I think Aaron Sorkin for Social Network is a definite here. Great, pacy script that makes a potentially dull subject sparkle. In another year Social Network would clean up.
Inception?
Just saying.
And that's most of the nominations I care about. The others I've either not seen enough films or I don't really understand the category. Sound mixing? I mean, I know what that is, but I don't think I've ever come out of a film saying 'The acting was wank, but man, that sound mixing!'
See you soon for either self satisfied gloating or a furious rampage of destruction.