Friday 11 February 2011

Rob's Oscar Predictions

Those Oscar nominations in full, with my confident and informed predictions about who's going to win. Except I haven't seen all of them. But let's not let that deter us. Here are the nominations for best film.

127 Hours

In a nutshell:     Boy gets arm stuck; saws it off.

I haven't seen this, despite it being by Danny Boyle, whom I enjoy and admire, and despite it being reportedly excellent. Part of this is due to time constraints, but I must also admit to be a bit nervous about the whole arm-choppy-off bit. What if I puke, pass out, scream or - worse - pass out while puking and screaming?

So this opinion is based not on actually seeing the thing, but on gauging how these awards tend to go. It's a true story, which Oscar seems to like, though this tends to lead to a best actor award rather than best film:

2004 - Ray (true story) gets best actor,
            Million Dollar Baby gets best film.
2005 - Capote (true story) gets best actor,
            Crash gets best film,
2006 - Last King of Scotland (true story) gets best actor,
           The Departed gets best film,
2008 - Milk (true story) gets best actor,
           Slumdog Millionaire gets best film.

So I think... not best film. Best actor, maybe. But not best film.




Black Swan

In a nutshell:     Girl wants to do ballet dance. Can't.
                          Goes weird. Can.

This is an impressive film, and Aronofsky has got his critical acclaim from The Wrestler. I think it's a serious contender. It deals with art and psychological pain and dark themes, which Oscar rewards more often than it does happiness and joy (despite good comedy being at least as difficult to achieve in film as misery and drama).

It's brilliantly made and surprisingly effective. Plus: psycho girl on girl action. Maybe that's what they should have called the film. 'Psycho Girl on Girl Dance Fever'





The Fighter

In a nutshell:      Boy wants to hit people for a living. Can't.
                           Tries harder. Can.


This is a good, solid story, well told and enjoyable. In another year it would have more of a chance, but not this year. It's a good cast, which is probably what got it the nod.

Actually, as I write this I'm realising how many of these nominations are driven by their central performances. The Fighter has a great cast and everyone puts in a strong performance, not least Christian Bale (nominated), Amy Adams (nominated) and Mark Walhberg (poo on head). Some awards for them, maybe. But it's not best film, by a long way.





Inception

In a nutshell:       Various boys and girls go into various dreams to
                            steal stuff.


As you probably know, I consider this to be the best film of last year, and this holds true even when bringing in the films which have only reached our shores in the last few weeks. I think it's clever, cinematic, beautifully scored and well acted. I love everything about it and in a just universe it would win best film.

But it won't, of course, because Oscar doesn't do genre, or action, or anything without a big, obvious central performance. In fact, I'm just going to go look and see if I can find a best film winner that comes close...

/sounds of clattering and banging/

The Departed? Sort of, but that's really a belated apology for not giving it to Goodfellas. Return of the King, I guess, but that was literary (another Oscar fave)  and the award was kind of for the achievment of making all three films. Silence of the Lambs is a thriller with overtones of horror, but that was, again, driven by two astonishing performances.

No, sorry Inception. You are fabulous, but you don't tick the right boxes. No Oscar for you. But if you don't get best original score, I will rent the heavens asunder.





 The Kids are all Right

In a nutshell:        Something to do with lesbians.






The King's Speech

In a nutshell:         King wants to say stuff. Can't.
                              Best friend helps.  Can.


This is the one everyone thinks is going to win, and I think they are right. It's a very good film, which pleases me, though it could have been better. Here's my revised synopsis.

The King (Academy Award Nominee Colin Firth) has a stammer. A speech therapist (Academy Award Winner Geoffrey Rush) decides that the only way to help him is to go into the King's dreams, find the part of his mind that makes him stammer, and shoot it with guns. Together with a crack team of dream-warriors, he navigates a labyrinth of rainy cityscapes, zero gravity corridors and icy fortresses to combat subconscious manifestations of the King's stammering problem. With music by Hans Zimmer!


"Hello everyone. Poo!"


Winter's Bone

In a nutshell:        No idea. Something about a girl going looking for
                             her... father? Brother? Not sure.



True Grit

In a nutshell:       Ah, now maybe this is the one about the girl going
                            looking for her father. Maybe. I know there's
                            definitely a horse in it.




The Social Network

In a nutshell:       Boy invents Facebook. Ironically, loses all friends.


Aha. I've seen this one. It's good, and I think, along with Black Swan, it's the film that poses a threat to the King's Speech. It's a smart, witty script, filmed well by Fincher (who resists, for the most part, the CGI excesses of earlier films) and featuring a really good pair of performances from Jesse Eisenberg (Academy Award Nominee) and Andrew Garfield (Spiderman!!!).

Can we all just forget about Benjamin Button and declare Fincher one fo the best directors ever?





Toy Story 3

In a nutshell:       Toys do heroic things and make you cry even
                             though you are a grown up now.



Well, obviously this won't win best film. Best animation, yes. But it would take a leap of courage and imagination that I suspect is beyond the Academy to see past the toy-centric subject matter and primary target audience of Toy Story and recognise that this is one of the best films ever. It has more invention, joy and creativity than most of the other films here combined and it deals with themes as profound as you'll find in any other movie this year.

Maybe we'll be surprised. It is the last of the trilogy, so there's the tiniest chance that Oscar will reward the whole series. But I doubt it. The Academy is deeply conservative, and tends to equate value with serious actors emoting gravely in dark rooms. A toy cowboy waving goodbye to his best friend forever... somehow doesn't move them like it moves me.




Anyway. That's what I think. Should be Inception or Toy Story, will be King's Speech, with a small chance of Black Swan or Social Network. I may have a think about the other categories. In the meantime, having just thought about the end of Toy Story 3, I find I have something in my eye and have to go find a tissue.

6 comments:

  1. Hmmm, I think Inception will win, but I don't think it should. (Was a disappointment to me; very linear film, meh performance as usual from Di Caprio, etc.)

    I agree it'd be wonderful if Toy Story 3 won (the only film of the last year that has made me cry twice while watching it), also if Winters Bone won, but if I was deciding I'd probably go for Black Swan. Controversially, I probably wouldn't give Natalie Portman the Best Actress Oscar though, which she is odds-on to get, because I think that was more a case of brilliant casting than brilliant acting.

    127 hours is fairly good, btw, but the central performance doesn't offer the gamut of emotions or the character development that would usually secure an true story a Best Actor Oscar. I wonder if Colin Firth will get it.

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  2. Winters Bone Winters Bone Winters Bone. Rend not rent. You couldn't afford it.

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  3. Good point. I hope God never holds me accountable for my typos.

    Winter's Bone good, is it?

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  4. Good film, not great but def good - modest measured and effective. Really really good central performance.

    We may have to fall out about Black Swan.

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  5. I realise you haven't asked for my opinion, and probably have no real interest in hearing it, but I am at a loose end so am going to share...

    I think The Social Network will win Best Picture, but The Kings Speech is also a great film. I didn't want to like it because everyone else did, but sadly I am doomed to conform. I also loved The Social Network though. Good job I am not an Academy member or I would be sweating over where to put my cross.

    I haven't seen Black Swan because it looks scary and I am a wimp. Come to think of it I haven't seen True Grit, Winters Bone, 127 Hours or Inception. I love the conema, but as I'm a mum, the chances are when I do get to the cinema I have to see something with irritating animated animals. Which brings me to my next point:

    Toy Story 3 was not as good as everyone seems to think. I thought it was a bit dull and the end was weak. i thought Toy Story (the original and best) was a far better film. I have also been made to feel like an outcast because - much like when the Diana died - I did not cry. Not even close.

    So there.

    Oh, and David Fincher should win Best Director. End of.

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  6. The end of Toy Story 3... dull?

    Pah. Girls.

    ;o)

    Opnions always welcome. Even wrong ones.

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